Powered by RND
PoddsändningarNäringslivSchiff Sovereign Podcast

Schiff Sovereign Podcast

James Hickman
Schiff Sovereign Podcast
Senaste avsnittet

Tillgängliga avsnitt

5 resultat 16
  • Podcast: The Rise of National Capitalism
    Few people understand how the Federal Reserve actually works— and frankly, I’m not sure the President or Treasury Secretary are among them. That’s not an insult, just based on what they say. Let me explain. Most people think the Fed sets “the interest rate” for everything—mortgages, car loans, 10-year yields. But that’s not how it works. The Fed only sets a very narrow rate—the overnight lending rate between banks. Everything else, from your mortgage to the government’s long-term borrowing costs, is determined by the bond market. And as America’s debt spirals past $37 trillion, the bond market—not the Fed—is in control. This misunderstanding matters. Because when Treasury Secretary Bessent says he’s going to “get rates down,” what he really means is printing money. That’s the only lever left: the Federal Reserve creates money electronically and uses it to buy government bonds. The consequence of that is inflation: more money in the system means higher prices. Sometimes it shows up in financial assets—stocks, bonds, real estate—can also surge to record highs as a result of inflation. Other times inflation hits the grocery store, your utility bill, or your insurance premiums. Lately, it’s been both. Inflation is everywhere. But this administration is also openly floating the idea of a sovereign wealth fund—borrowing billions (or trillions) and putting that money directly into the stock market. Intel. Nvidia. Strategic stakes in American companies. It’s not socialism, and it’s not free markets. It’s something in between: a blending of state and corporate power. Call it National Capitalism. If that sounds far-fetched, remember—they’re already talking about taking a stake in Intel. Why would they stop there? This administration is full of people whose entire background is borrowing massive sums of money at low interest, pouring it into enormous projects, and pocketing the spread. There’s nothing wrong with that. That’s what they know. That’s what they do. Trump is a very successful real estate developer who has personally borrowed billions of dollars throughout his career. So of course when they look at the economy, their instinct is to repeat the same playbook on a national scale—borrow cheap, buy big, and hope the gap between cost and return pays for everything. But when the government itself becomes one of the biggest stock buyers, what happens to markets? They explode higher. And you’re going to want to own assets when that happens. This is the subject of today’s podcast. We dive into: Why the Fed’s “rate cuts” don’t control the 10-year or 30-year Treasury yields—and why the bond market is now in charge. How the U.S. is spending $1.2 trillion a year just on interest payments, and why refinancing old debt at today’s higher rates keeps driving costs up. The Fed’s true method of lowering rates: creating new money, buying bonds, and fueling asset bubbles—at the cost of more inflation. The absurdity of how the US banking system works. How every time the Fed “prints money” to bail out a crisis—9/11, 2008, the pandemic—it ends up inflating specific bubbles: housing, stocks, crypto, collectibles, and now consumer prices across the board. And we wrap up with a quick look at Total Access—our highest level membership built around forging lasting relationships with other members in extraordinary settings. It combines world-class networking and internationalization strategies with unforgettable, once-in-a-lifetime travel experiences. Right now, Total Access membership is open for a limited time. You can learn more here. And you can listen to the full podcast here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g22tNN5YNo The podcast transcript is available here.
    --------  
    59:16
  • Podcast: The debt problem was actually scarier in the 90s. Here’s how they solved it.
    I was still just a kid as the US headed into the 1992 US Presidential election, but I remember the excitement around my home town as Ross Perot entered the race as an independent candidate. Perot was from Dallas, where I grew up. And he was one of the first tech billionaires, long before the dot-com boom. Like Elon today, Perot knew that America was heading down a dangerous fiscal path. At the time, the US government was spending about 28% of its annual tax revenue just to pay interest on the national debt. It wasn't because the debt was so vast. Actually back then it was just a fraction of today's debt. The real problem was that sky-high interest rates from the 1980s (15%+) had pushed the government's borrowing costs and annual interest bill to the moon. So Ross Perot decided to run for President under a promise to fix the deficit. Few people understood anything about the deficit back then. So Perot used his vast fortune to buy TV time where he would explain the problem in hour-long presentations. I remember  learning things from him that I'd never even heard about before-- Treasury markets, bond yields, government accounting, mandatory spending, and more. Perot single-handedly dragged America's deficit issue to the front page and started a national conversation; so even though Bill Clinton ultimately won the election, Perot succeeded in making deficit reduction a top priority. It was interesting times politically. Clinton was rocked by scandals, impeached, and deeply hated by the other party... quite similar to the situation today. They didn't have social media back then, but 'talk radio' pundits raged 24/7 with the same ferocity of today's Twitter mob. Yet even with such conflict and division, Congress and the White House managed to work it out. And over the next decade, interest costs fell from 28% of tax revenue down to 18%. And by the end of the 1990s the government was posting strong budget surpluses. How did they do it? It wasn't rocket science or black magic. They simply took a common sense approach to spending-- they held spending increases to minimal levels, all while tax revenue soared thanks to a tech-fueled economic bonanza. Over the ten-year period between 1991 and 2000, government expenditures only rose by 35%. Adjusted for inflation that's just 5.5% over the entire decade. Meanwhile tax revenue nearly doubled over the same period. Poof. Problem solved. And America stormed into the 21st century with a record budget surplus, and its interest costs and national debt under control. Could this happen today? Maybe. There are a lot of similarities. The US government currently pays roughly 22% of tax revenue just to cover the annual interest bill on the national debt, and this amount is growing rapidly. Not to mention, interest costs plus mandatory entitlements (like Social Security and Medicare) already consume 100% of tax revenue. If they don't solve this problem, America is going to be looking at a major fiscal crisis in the coming years. Unfortunately few people in power seem to be taking this seriously. The White House is far more focused on tariffs and trade rather than the obvious problem-- excessive spending. And when it comes to deficit reduction, their approach is to seize control of the Fed to push through interest rate cuts. Congress, meanwhile, seems completely oblivious to the problem. One of my major concerns is that American voters tend to oscillate from one side to another. So if the guys in power now don't solve this problem now, voters could swing hard to the Left in 2028, quite possibly to a card-carrying socialist. There are certainly a lot of socialists emerging in American politics. And they all see deficits as a "revenue problem" and believe that higher taxes will fix every challenge. Well, we did the math in today's podcast: "taxing the rich" won't make a dent in the deficit problem. Neither will wealth taxes,
    --------  
    54:45
  • Project “Hijack the Fed” is now in full swing.
    To the surprise of absolutely no one today, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee chose to do nothing at the close of its two-day meeting. The White House is furious about the decision; the President believes that the Fed should be slashing rates, and that the current “high” rate of interest is costing the US government hundreds of billions of dollars each year in excess interest. (I put “high” in quotes because interest rates are still well below historic averages...) Now, I am no fan of the Fed. Quite the opposite— the organization is a total failure. Just consider that section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act (passed in 1913) states that the Fed is supposed to maintain a stable currency. Yet the US dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power under the Fed’s stewardship over the past 112 years. Personally I think it’s difficult to find another organization that has been so terrible at its core mission for so long. Yet even with that scathing criticism in mind, it’s still not the Fed’s job to bail out the US government’s finances. If Congress and the White House want to pay a lower interest rate on the national debt, then they can make the hard decisions to cut spending, balance the budget, and attract foreign investment by acting like responsible adults. Unfortunately none of that seems to be in the cards. So instead there seems to be a clear plan being hatched: Project “Hijack the Fed”. Let’s start from the basics: In order to fund its roughly $2 trillion annual budget deficit, the US government has to sell debt (bonds) to investors to plug its funding gap. And this responsibility falls to the Treasury Department. Ordinarily, Treasury would sell a mix of US government bonds, ranging from ultra-short-term 28-day T-bills, to very long-term 30-year bonds. Lately, however, the Treasury Department has been focused on selling mostly short-term bonds... simply because those rates are lower. The yield on a 12-month T-bill, for example, is just 3.86%, whereas the yield on 10-year Treasury is almost 5%, so it’s a difference of roughly 1%. In some ways it’s sensible to take the lower rate. But it’s a risky strategy. If interest rates suddenly rise, then the US government could wind up paying even MORE interest in the next few years, just to save 1% today. So clearly the Treasury Department must have some confidence that rates won’t be going higher... and will probably be headed lower. Last month Secretary Bessent even said this out loud: “What I’m going to do is, I’m going to go very short-term. . . Wait until this guy [Fed Chairman Jerome Powell] gets out, get the rates way down, and then go long-term.” In other words, he’s going to keep selling the lower-interest short-term debt. Then, once Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman ends next year, the Treasury Secretary thinks that HE will be able to “get the rates way down”, at which point he’ll start selling long-term debt to lock in lower rates. This is a stunning admission that the Treasury Secretary (and by extension the White House) think that they will be able to steer interest rates much lower through their new Fed pick next year. Coincidentally, Treasury Secretary Bessent also happens to be on Donald Trump’s shortlist to be the next Fed Chairman. So let’s skip over the obvious legal and reputational issues involved in such a move. The bigger problem is that there’s only one way for the Fed— even if Secretary Bessent becomes Chairman— to “get the rates way down”... and that is by expanding the money supply, i.e. what we often refer to as printing money. And just as we saw during the pandemic when the Fed printed $5 trillion, large-scale money printing can easily lead to some nasty inflation. Why it matters: We’ve been talking about the next inflation cycle for a while, explaining why 2033 is the key date to keep in mind; this is when Social Security’s major trust fund will run out of money,
    --------  
    50:21
  • Foreigners Own Less US Government Debt— Is That a Good Thing? [Podcast]
    The US owes a LOT less money to China today than it did a few years ago. As recently as three years ago, for example, China held $1.3 trillion worth of US government bonds. Today they’re down to around $750 billion. In other words, China’s government has decided to cut back on its US dollar Treasury holdings by more than 40% over the past three years. And at first, that might sound like a good thing— HOORAY! More independence from foreign creditors! America is better off without that Chinese money! Right? But in reality this is a huge problem. Because it’s not just China. Going back to the years before Covid, roughly a third of US debt was owned by foreigner governments and foreign central banks. But then federal debt skyrocketed during the pandemic, and US government credibility plummeted. Even the government’s credit rating has been slashed. As a result, foreigners across the board began stepping back from Treasury securities. Today foreign ownership of US debt is less than 25%, and falling. This is a significant drop in just a few years. Why it matters: The US Treasury relies heavily on foreign capital to fund the federal government’s gargantuan (~$2 trillion) deficits. So if foreigners’ appetite to buy US government debt is waning— at a time when federal deficits are exploding higher— where will the Treasury Department come up with the money? There are essentially two answers. Either (1) the Federal Reserve will “print” the money, or (2) domestic investors within the US economy will buy government bonds and fund the deficit. But both of those options come at a significant cost. Consequences of the Fed funding US government deficits: In order for the Federal Reserve to buy US government bonds (and essentially fund the government’s annual budget deficit), the Fed must first expand the money supply. We often refer to this as “printing money” even though it all happens electronically. The Fed calls it “quantitative easing”, or QE, but it’s all the same thing. The consequence of QE is inflation. Serious, serious inflation. Think about it— during the pandemic, the Fed’s QE created roughly $5 trillion in new money... resulting in 9% inflation. Creating enough money to fund federal budget deficits over the next decade could result in the Fed having to print $15+ trillion. So most likely that’s going to be a LOT of inflation. Consequences of the US economy funding government deficits: American investors, i.e. banks, funds, corporate treasury departments, etc. could also buy more US government bonds in order to offset waning foreign demand. But this capital comes at a big opportunity cost Any private capital that goes in to the Treasury market means less money available to buy stocks, fund venture capital, or finance real estate mortgages The net result is lower stock prices, higher mortgage rates, and slower innovation.   Why China is first to ditch US government bonds: After sanctions on Russia, which included freezing their Treasury holdings, other countries got spooked — especially China. China probably fears becoming the next target of US financial weaponization. This may also be an indication that they will eventually invade Taiwan So China is hedging: they’re selling their US government bonds and buying literal metric tons of physical gold— driving gold prices to record highs. The bottom line: The shrinking foreign appetite for US debt is a glaring red flag. It signals waning confidence in US fiscal credibility and could lead to a capital squeeze at home — or nasty inflation spiral if the Fed fills the gap. Many Americans might cheer the idea of being less reliant on Chinese or other foreign money. But in reality, foreign investment in government debt is the closest thing to a ‘free lunch’ in economics. It means that foreigners are financing federal deficits, meaning less inflation at home,
    --------  
    15:31
  • Some thoughts on Epstein as an intelligence agent [Podcast]
    Many of our readers know that I was an Army intelligence officer, and so I want to start by clearing up some basic terminology. When people talk about intelligence work, they often confuse terms like asset, agent, and operative. An asset is someone who provides intelligence—intentionally or not—to an agency. Even a guy who’s bragging in bed to some woman he doesn’t realize is part of a honeypot intelligence operation. He’s spilling secrets and doesn’t even know it. That’s an asset. An agent, by contrast, knows what they’re doing. They’re actively, willingly working with an intelligence agency. They’re recruited, trained, and they know who they’re talking to. And an operative is someone actually doing the work—on the ground, collecting the data, running the missions. When people say “CIA agent,” thinking of a James Bond style spy, what they probably mean is an “operative.” Which brings us to Jeffrey Epstein. Is it plausible that Epstein was in the intelligence business, either as an agent or even an operative? Of course. It is extremely likely. This was a guy with deep access to powerful people in politics, finance, science, and media. He was inside every major institution and had personal relationships with celebrities, billionaires, royalty, and heads of state. Clearly the intelligence community would take an interest in someone like that. Epstein had access, influence, dirt, connections—and he knew how to use them. Combine that with his ability to blackmail people who committed the most vile crimes imaginable and you’ve got leverage more powerful than aircraft carriers and nuclear warheads. And that may be why no real information has been released. If Epstein was working with US intelligence, the implications are beyond horrifying. We're talking about the federal government—funded by your tax dollars—knowingly enabling a long-term blackmail operation built on the exploitation of children. If they admit Epstein was one of theirs, they'd be admitting that senior officials knew what he was doing, who he was abusing. They let it happen, and they used it as a tool of statecraft. That kind of admission would light a match to the powder keg that is American distrust in government. And they know it. There’s also the possibility, that Epstein worked for a foreign intelligence service— and the US intelligence and law enforcement establishment didn’t even realize it. Which would mean the entire US intelligence community—the CIA, FBI, DOJ, NSA—missed the fact that a foreign service was running a massive blackmail operation on US soil, targeting US officials, abusing children... and they did nothing about it. That's not just a failure. That’s catastrophic incompetence. And their motivation to cover that up would be similar to the UK “Grooming Gangs” cover-up that I recently wrote about. In the UK, grooming gangs operated for years while the government and media looked the other way. Why? Because investigating them might have been politically incorrect. It might’ve been an admission that mass migration and multicultural policies went horribly wrong. So instead, they gaslit the public, censored speech, and criminalized dissent. The same pattern is happening here. A massive scandal implicating the highest levels of government, media, academia, celebrity, and global finance is being buried—because admitting the truth would mean admitting failure on a colossal, nation-destroying scale. I ask a couple other questions in today’s brief podcast, such as: Where are the investigative journalists? Do you remember the clowns at ProPublica who got their hands on Warren Buffett’s tax returns and paraded them like it was the scoop of the century? Why haven’t they gone after Epstein’s hedge fund, his financials, his filings? Where’s the Pulitzer Prize-winning exposé? Same with The New York Times, the Washington Post, and the rest of the self-righteous media establishment.
    --------  
    20:44

Fler podcasts i Näringsliv

Om Schiff Sovereign Podcast

James Hickman is a West Point graduate and former intelligence officer who has had an extensive business and investment career spanning more than 25 years. James has traveled to 120+ countries on all 7 continents, and he has started, invested in, and acquired businesses all over the world, in sectors ranging from technology to agriculture to banking. Since he originally began writing under the pen name “Simon Black” back in 2007, James has accurately predicted many of the major trends and events of our time, including the West’s enormous debt bubble, inflation, bank failures, social unrest, and more. Read more at www.schiffsovereign.com
Podcast-webbplats

Lyssna på Schiff Sovereign Podcast, Inga dumma frågor om pengar och många andra poddar från världens alla hörn med radio.se-appen

Hämta den kostnadsfria radio.se-appen

  • Bokmärk stationer och podcasts
  • Strömma via Wi-Fi eller Bluetooth
  • Stödjer Carplay & Android Auto
  • Många andra appfunktioner

Schiff Sovereign Podcast: Poddsändningar i Familj

Sociala nätverk
v7.23.3 | © 2007-2025 radio.de GmbH
Generated: 8/26/2025 - 7:11:32 AM