Macro Mondays

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! 

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 
00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes
02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow?
05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs
09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout?
11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows?
15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely
17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock
20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst
22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike
24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking?
25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade
27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case?

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 
00:23 - Kevin Warsh Turns Hawkish: Should Investors Pull Back on Risk?
02:01 - What Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Really Changed
03:31 - PCE vs CPI: Which Inflation Signal Should the Fed Trust?
06:22 - Warsh vs Bessent: The Battle Over Rates and Bond Yields
08:58 - September Rate Hike: Is the Market Overreading the Fed?
13:04 - Why One Rate Hike Probably Won’t Kill the Business Cycle
15:17 - US Strikes Larak Island: Is the Iran War Restarting?
16:46 - Strait of Hormuz, Crack Spreads, and the Next Inflation Trade
21:12 - South Korea Exports vs ISM: The AI Boom Is Still Running Hot
24:01 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Weak Payrolls May Not Stop the Fed
25:54 - ECB vs Fed: Why the Short-Dollar Trade Still Works

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #realvision
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether Friday’s stock market rally marks the return of a more bullish macro setup, and how far this move could run. They break down Scott Bessent’s latest intervention in bond markets and what it could mean for yields, the U.S. dollar, and global liquidity. Plus, they dig into the intensifying Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle and ask whether markets are getting another dose of “Warsh hopium” after Friday’s price action.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Are We Finally Back?
00:59 - Bitcoin and Gold Start Moving Again
02:25 - Why the Debasement Trade Is Back
03:24 - What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do
04:53 - The TGA Changes the Liquidity Story
05:29 - Why Bank Liquidity Matters for Markets
07:19 - How Much Liquidity Could Treasury Add?
09:42 - Hedge Funds Become the Marginal Treasury Buyer
11:35 - Is This Sustainable for Bitcoin and Gold?
12:19 - Temporary vs. Permanent Liquidity
14:02 - How Big Could Bessent’s Buybacks Get?
16:46 - Andreas’ Weaker-Dollar Portfolio Setup
18:03 - OpenAI vs. Anthropic
24:14 - Iran, China, and the Geopolitical Spillover
28:06 - What Could Kevin Warsh Say at Jackson Hole?
29:07 - The Most Important Macro Chart Right Now
30:06 - Is the Fed About to Turn Less Hawkish?

#macromondays #macro  #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket #fed #bonds #treasuries #usdollar #dxy #liquidity #openai #anthropic #interestrates #trading #realvision #scottbessent #kevinwarsh #federalreserve
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back for another episode of Macro Mondays, boiling down the latest topics, from why the Fed may still be overreading inflation risks to why Donald Trump ordered a pullback on military exercises in South Korea. Plus, Andreas lays out his favorite trades for the current macro regime.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Goldilocks Is Back? Why Growth and Inflation Are Finally Aligning
05:02 - US Consumer Strength vs Record-Low Sentiment: What’s Really Going On
10:41 - Why the Fed Could Be Wrong-Footed by Falling Inflation
13:07 - Four Reasons US Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Expected
18:45 - Could Goldilocks Change the Midterm Election Outlook?
19:36 - Trump, South Korea, and the Growing Risk to Asia’s AI Supply Chain
22:08 - High-Bandwidth Memory, China, and the US Export-Control Problem
24:31 - Micron, Memory Stocks, and Why the AI Trade May Still Be Early
26:34 - The Best Macro Trade Now: Own Inflation Where the Fed Can’t See It
29:31 - Why a Weaker Dollar Could Unlock the Next Leg of the Rally

#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #trump #jobs #korea
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup. 

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Timestamps:
00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected? 
01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low
05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over
09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup?
12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover
14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak?
18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch
20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks
22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow?

#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf