Macro Mondays

With the U.S. midterm elections just one day away, Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the forces shaping markets as November gets underway. They examine the battle for control of Congress and what the outcome could mean for markets, the disconnect between surging AI investment and selling pressure across technology stocks, and why liquidity could become the next major market catalyst.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome to Macro Monday's 
01:25 - Three News Items: Anthropic Q3, ISM & Iran Oil Drop
02:26 - Iran Peace Deal: Trump’s Way Out
03:30 - Real Vision Trading League Launch
04:31 - October Market Panic: Liquidity & Hedge Fund Deleveraging
06:31 - Extreme Positioning & October PPI Turning Point
08:36 - Peace Deal Could Spark Rally Like April
09:12 - US Midterms: Michigan, Texas & Democratic Sweep
13:29 - Lame Duck Period: Appropriations & Debt Ceiling
15:19 - Anthropic: Fastest $1B to $75B Growth in History
16:42 - “No More AI CapEx” Credit Investor Consensus
18:09 - Tech Sector Priced Below 2022 Bottom
20:02 - Anthropic IPO: Why Steno Prefers OpenAI
21:19 - GPU Spot Prices Soaring Since October
22:06 - LLM Margins & Commoditization Debate
24:01 - This Week on Real Vision: Drill & Drinks with Raoul
26:10 - Positioning: Semiconductors Still Look Great
27:45 - Closing Thoughts
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ndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to challenge one of the biggest narratives in markets: that the AI boom is simply another dot-com bubble waiting to burst. They break down why today's AI investment cycle may be fundamentally different from the late 1990s, and what that means for tech stocks and the broader market outlook.

They also unpack the latest political surprise involving Brazil's Lula and the implications for emerging markets, before turning to renewed EU–China trade tensions and what another escalation could mean for global trade, European industry, and investors.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Anthropic IPO Filing: What It Reveals About the AI Buildout 
02:41 - AI vs Dot-Com: Why the Comparison Still Doesn’t Hold
05:54 - Why Higher Rates Are Forcing AI to Prove ROI Now
08:15 - Big Tech Earnings: Can Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft Calm Credit Markets?
09:32 - GPU Rental Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
12:33 - Is Anthropic Running Out of Compute?
15:22 - Anthropic IPO: Could It Pull Capital Away From the Mag 7?
16:42 - Where to Position If the Fed Finally Acknowledges Tight Financial Conditions
18:33 - Has the Market Already Priced in the End of the AI Boom?
19:19 - Brazil Election Shock: Lula Wins and Markets Get Hit
22:08 - Israel Election: Why Policy Toward Iran May Not Change Much
23:50 - EU vs China: Europe Escalates the Trade War
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Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon, and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone? 
02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France
04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking?
05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup
07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones
08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall?
09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI
11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point
14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx?
15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case
18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War?
20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade
21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 Rebound

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#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle the question that matters most for markets right now: are we still mid-cycle, or are the warning signs of a late-cycle economy starting to pile up? They also head to Europe, where surging French bond yields, political uncertainty, and renewed concerns over the country’s finances are putting pressure on French assets. Is the turmoil a genuine warning for investors — or exactly the kind of dislocation you should be buying? Plus, Andreas and Mikkel revisit purchasing power parity and ask how useful PPP really is when trying to figure out where currencies should trade.

The markets are wide open right now. Crypto, AI, entire sectors repricing. You don't need a finance degree to play anymore. You just need someone to hand you the map.

That's Real Vision. The place where the best minds in macro and crypto break down what's moving, with the research, tools and community to help you make your own calls.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays October 5, 2026
00:22 - Mid-Cycle or Late-Cycle? The Big Macro Question 
02:14 - GDP vs PPP: Is Russia’s Economy Really Smaller Than the UK’s?
05:15 - Why Energy and Food Self-Sufficiency Matter More in a Crisis
07:21 - Iran War Update: Why Oil Flows Are Better Than Before the War
10:56 - Can a Democratic Midterm Sweep Derail the AI Buildout?
14:32 - ISM Services Miss: Is the US Economy Starting to Slow?
17:55 - France in Turmoil: Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Political Risk?
20:39 - Marine Le Pen, French Bonds, and Why France Could Be a Buy
26:09 - Mid-Cycle vs Late-Cycle: Will Central Banks Kill the Expansion?
29:01 - Dollar Strength, Hormuz, and the April-Style Setup Returning

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch
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Apologies for the late upload!

We cover the inversion of the yield curve and what that tells us about the business cycle and the outlook for equities. We also discuss the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit.
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Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf