The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff on a 29,000 jobs miss, weak wage growth, a $132.6B trade deficit, Trump's inflation remark, and why bonds sold off anyway.

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Peter Schiff breaks down the September jobs report: just 29,000 jobs against an 85,000 estimate. July was revised back to negative 10,000 and August down to 133,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, private payrolls added 46,000, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1%, the smallest monthly gain in more than five years, while August CPI rose 0.4%. Peter had forecast both the miss and the downward revisions on Tuesday's podcast.

Peter explains why the bond market sold off despite the weak report and softer August PCE data, even as the odds of an October rate hike fell sharply. The 10-year Treasury closed the week at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%, which he calls classic bear market action. He also covers personal income rising 0.2% against spending up 0.9%, a 4.1% savings rate, and an August trade deficit of $132.6 billion, the fourth worst in US history, which he says shows tariffs have not reduced imports and that importers are the ones paying them.

On stocks, Peter notes the Nasdaq hit an intraday record while 147 stocks made new 52-week lows against 38 new highs on the week, breadth he compares to 1999-2000 and 1973. He responds to President Trump's interview comment that inflation will pay off the debt, arguing it amounts to a sell signal for bondholders, and disputes Trump's claim that he inherited inflation from Biden.

Peter reviews gold near $4,140, silver at $60.37 and the miners, Bitcoin near $84,500 and Strategy's Stretch trading back near par, and argues the data points to stagflation, with AI capital spending propping up GDP. He discusses the G7's 100 million barrel oil reserve release, mortgage rates he thinks could reach 8% this month, risks to housing, autos, credit and Fannie and Freddie, $40 trillion in debt at 5% interest, Janet Yellen's past comments on low rates, and Rick Santelli's final day at CNBC. He closes by urging listeners to buy the dip in gold and silver, with support near $4,000 and $60.

Chapters:
00:00 Bond Crisis Warning
01:02 September Jobs Shock
03:02 Revisions and Labor Details
06:22 Wages Lag Inflation
08:16 Bonds Sell Off Anyway
12:36 Income Spending PCE
15:47 Trade Deficit Tariffs
20:13 Stocks Ignore Rising Yields
26:48 Trump Inflation Pays Debt
28:06 Inflation Pays Debt Claim
29:02 Who Owns Inflation Blame
30:17 Bondholders Get Burned
31:20 Weekly Market Scorecard
31:49 Gold Silver Yield Paradox
34:13 Stagflation And AI Distortion
36:17 Bitcoin Strategy Stretch Update
38:35 Bond Vigilantes Take Over
40:21 Oil Reserves And Mortgage Shock
45:08 Debt Math And Crisis Setup
49:51 Midterms And Voter Reality
51:56 Buy Metals And Wrap Up

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Peter Schiff on record bond yields, a 12-year low in consumer confidence, the end of the 40-year refi era, and why gold is the last safe haven.

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Bond yields hit new highs on weak data, consumer confidence sank to a 12-year low, and Peter says the end game has arrived.

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.62% and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, two weeks after 5% was supposed to be the ceiling. What makes this week different is that bonds sold off on bad news: consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest in 12 years and below the depths of the pandemic, job openings missed, and yields rose anyway. Peter's warning is direct: if Friday's jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash. Gold's $170 drop is the market getting this backwards. Money leaving bonds ends up in gold, the last safe haven standing.

The bigger story is housing. America is now in the worst quadrant, high debt and high rates, which it has never lived through. For 40 years mortgage rates only fell, from 18% in 1981 to 2.65% in 2021, and homeowners rode that wave with serial cash-out refis that turned the house into an ATM. At 7.4% and headed past 8%, that era is over: no more refis, no cash out, no wealth effect, with homes at five times income and down payments at 13.8%. Fannie and Freddie are down 75% while the government buys more mortgage bonds. Neither party will name a cut. Every crisis Peter has warned about is converging, and he says to get your plan B in order.

Chapters:
00:00 Bond Crash Warning
01:02 Yields Surge and Mortgages
02:59 Gold Dip and Safe Haven
07:11 Weak Data Ignored
13:21 Housing Market Cracks
14:48 Password Security Ad
16:00 High Debt High Rates Era
19:17 Housing Bubble Math
23:56 Refi Boom Ends
28:24 Home Prices Next Drop
31:30 Noom Weight Loss Pitch
33:07 GSE Stocks Get Crushed
35:50 Trump Hype And Dump
39:39 PSA Or Campaign Ad
42:41 Deficits Nobody Will Cut
47:59 Affordability Promises Backfire
50:08 Socialism Messaging Trap
52:12 AI Hope Versus Debt Crisis
56:02 Fed Out Of Tricks
56:43 Prepare For The Storm
57:28 Wrap Up And Plan B

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Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:
00:00 Breadth Crash Warning
00:59 Bond Yields Surge
04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages
07:37 Oil Link Breaks
11:01 Consumers and Hoarding
14:58 Markets Misread Gold
18:47 Hidden Bear Market Breadth
21:06 History Rhymes Again
23:21 Ackman and Inflation Target
29:15 China Summit and Tariffs
33:05 Bank Shutdown FOIA Fight
38:20 FOIA Fight With IRS
39:11 Settlement And New Disclosures
42:03 Press Conference Double Standard
43:46 Jim Lee Email Questions
47:10 MOU Proof Of Coordination
50:56 Unanswered Questions Expose Narrative
55:02 Publicity Stunt Motive
56:04 Portugal Freeze Fallout
57:23 Receivership Numbers Breakdown
01:04:40 Government Vs Free Market Rant
01:06:41 Congress Won't Act
01:07:41 Wrap Up And Investing Pitch

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Peter Schiff serves as Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, LLC (“EPAM”), an SEC-registered investment adviser. The views and opinions expressed are those of Mr. Schiff as of the date of recording and may change without notice. Certain statements concerning historical events and regulatory matters reflect Mr. Schiff’s interpretation of the facts and information available to him.
Market and investment commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. International investing involves additional risks, including currency, political, economic and regulatory risks.
For information regarding EPAM’s investment advisory services, please visit europac.com. Registration with the SEC does not imply a particular level of skill or training.

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Peter Schiff on 22-year high yields, record diesel, McDonald's inflation warning, and Trump's claim he told Warsh how to vote.

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Peter Schiff reviews the rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and what 5% rates would mean for interest on the $40 trillion national debt. He opens with a comment Donald Trump made after the Fed's 25 basis point hike: that he told Kevin Warsh he "might as well vote with the board." Peter argues that either Trump is lying or, if the conversation happened, the Fed chairman is clearing his votes with the president, and that Warsh should be asked directly at the next press conference.

He then turns to the bond market. The five-year auction cleared at 5.03%, the highest in just over 20 years; the 30-year reached 5.41%, a 22-year high, and the 10-year hit 5.12%. He expects the 10/30 spread, now under 30 basis points, to widen back toward 50 or more, and suggests shorting the 30-year against the 10-year. If the government pays 5% on $40 trillion, interest would run $2 trillion a year, about 35% of tax revenue and more than Social Security, with the debt growing by more than $3 trillion a year. He says stock investors still assume yields are near a top.

McDonald's stock fell about 5% after its CEO said inflation would stay elevated for "many more years," which Peter contrasts with Warsh's claim that expectations are anchored at 2%. He agrees with Warsh that growth does not cause inflation; loose monetary policy does.

Diesel set another record above $6.50 a gallon, near $10 in California. Peter argues a diesel export ban would cut production, and that drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaves nothing for a real emergency.

On the midterms, he notes Democrats are now 65% favorites to take the Senate, with cost of living the top issue, and blames Trump rather than Biden for inflation, while the Gulf conflict looks to be worsening. He criticizes the White House for pulling credentials from CNN, Politico and MS Now, recounts Trump's reaction to his Fox & Friends appearance, and discusses California's lawsuit against Trump Media over selling early access to Trump's posts for $50,000 to $100,000 a month, which he calls insider information.

Peter closes with his Schiff Sovereign Plan B conference in Panama, which drew 130 to 140 attendees, and the story of his grandparents arriving through Ellis Island in 1902 and 1903 with no paperwork. His argument: the problem is not immigrants but the welfare state, and listeners should get their financial house in order, including gold, silver and TGold.

Chapters:
00:00 Diesel Hits Record Highs
00:52 Back From Panama Update
03:19 Trump Fed Comment Fallout
09:34 Treasury Yields Break 5%
12:42 Debt Interest Disaster Math
17:30 McDonalds Warns Inflation Years
22:20 Diesel Export Ban And SPR Risks
27:23 Midterms Senate Odds Shift
30:40 War And Media Crackdown Concerns
31:38 Press Ban Fallout
33:18 Fake News Double Standard
33:38 Fox Interview Backlash
35:54 Truth Social Insider Edge
37:12 Market Moving Posts Explained
41:13 GOP Hypocrisy Warning
43:06 Panama Plan B Conference
45:27 Why Panama Appeals
47:40 Gilded Age Tariff Myth
48:45 Open Immigration Then
55:21 Welfare State Border Reality
59:23 Plan B Portfolio Prep
59:51 Signing Off Anniversary

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The Fed hiked a quarter point. Peter explains why it will not stop the bond market, the dollar, or what is already coming for housing.

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The Fed finally hiked. Peter says the quarter point changes nothing about what is already in motion.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, a 90 percent probability going in and a unanimous vote coming out. Peter's read is that none of that signals resolve. The Fed did not hike because it wanted to. Months of tough talk had stopped working, the bond market had called the bluff, and the committee was left with a put-up-or-shut-up moment it could not dodge. So it did the smallest thing available, and Kevin Warsh gave the shortest press conference of his tenure on the way out.

A quarter point does not touch inflation heading for a four handle, not with oil above 100 dollars and diesel at record highs. The reason the Fed will not do more is not caution, it is capacity. A hike large enough to break inflation would break the economy and the Treasury's ability to fund itself.

The market understood immediately. The Dow closed down roughly 600 points after being green before the announcement, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5 percent, which Peter calls a stepping stone to 6. He also covers Trump's demand for sub-1 percent rates, Scott Bessent's testimony, why 8 percent mortgages are coming, and why he expects gold to recover from this selloff quickly.

Chapters:
00:00 Fed Hikes Under Pressure
00:33 Markets Priced In the Move
03:46 Fed Cornered by Inflation Talk
06:38 Symbolic Hike and Market Fallout
10:11 Fiscal Policy and Real Inflation
21:31 Bond Yields Surge and Trump Reacts
32:28 Import Cold Turkey Fallout
33:40 Tariffs And China Surplus
35:08 Empty Shelves Economic Crash
36:18 Five Thousand Dollar Dividend
44:30 Bonds For Bombs And Meme Coins
53:32 Crypto Politics Gold Outlook Farewell

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