The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

Higher sovereign bond yields are raising the cost of money across the global economy, with significant implications for emerging markets. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Thea Fourie, Head of Middle East and Africa Insights and Analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the forces keeping borrowing costs elevated and why some economies are better positioned than others to withstand the pressure.
The conversation also explores the opportunities and transition risks created by artificial intelligence. Thea discusses how gaps in infrastructure, digital access, workforce skills and capital could widen the divide between economies—and what governments and businesses can do to improve AI readiness. She also previews El Niño as a key risk to watch in 2027, with potential consequences for growth, inflation, interest rates and government support.
In this episode, we discuss:
Why sovereign bond yields have reached multi-decade highs
How higher borrowing costs affect governments, businesses and households
What makes some African and Middle Eastern economies more resilient than others
Why electricity, digital access and workforce skills are central to AI readiness

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Picture This: Sovereign yields have risen to multi-decade highs in major markets
Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy
Global Economic Outlook: September 2026
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Sovereign yield FAQs: Increases, implications and indicators of crises
Impact of super El Niño
Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guest: Thea Fourie
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

A potential Super El Niño could be far more than a weather event. It could become a global supply-side shock, disrupting food production, energy systems, mining, transport and trade while adding to inflation and political instability. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, adapted from a Sept. 9 S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar, experts examine how extreme weather could compound existing pressures across Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the wider global economy.

Listen to learn:
Why a Super El Niño could produce a synchronized shock across agriculture, energy and logistics
Why food prices—especially rice, wheat, cocoa, vegetable oil and sugar—are a critical channel into inflation, household spending and policy intervention
Where drought, flooding and water stress pose the greatest risks to hydropower, mining, manufacturing and export infrastructure
Which markets warrant close monitoring
Which indicators companies should monitor over the next 90 days to judge whether risks are stabilizing or escalating
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy
Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026
Global Economic Outlook: September 2026
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Impact of super El Niño
Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa
El Niño 2026–27: Agriculture, macroeconomic and policy implications for APAC
Credits:
Host: Susan Minio
Guests: Justin Valentino, Ahmad Mobeen, Martin Roberts
Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

The 2026 US midterm elections will shape control of Congress, influence policymaking at the federal and state levels, and help set the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
 
In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with John Raines, Head of North America Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about how scenario-based analysis can provide a more useful view of the elections than headline polling alone. They examine the forces affecting key congressional and gubernatorial races, including the cost of living, energy prices, trade policy and growing debate over AI and data centers.
 
Kristen and John explore potential outcomes for the House and Senate and what each could mean for the US policy environment. Topics include the outlook for taxation, regulation, permitting, immigration enforcement and government spending, as well as the potential for legislative gridlock, funding disputes and increased congressional oversight. The episode also considers polling limitations, the possibility of delayed or contested results, and the implications for businesses navigating continued political uncertainty.
 
Listen to learn:
Why election analysis benefits from scenarios rather than a single forecast
What makes the 2026 midterms significant for US federal and state policy
Which economic and policy issues could shape voter decisions
Why businesses may need to prepare for several possible policy environments
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026
Picture This: 2026 US Midterm Elections Could Reshape Policy Risk
US flash PMI signals fastest growth for over five years in September
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Scenario analysis of US midterm elections
Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guest: John Raines
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Tim Moore to discuss the latest Purchasing Managers' Index data and what it reveals about the global economy, regional growth trends and construction-sector momentum.
Despite persistent headwinds — including geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, supply chain disruption and unsettled bond markets — global business activity has shown notable resilience. The discussion explores the factors supporting growth across services and manufacturing, while also examining why business confidence remains subdued despite stronger output.
The episode also looks at PMI coverage across the Middle East, including signs of improving momentum in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The conversation highlights the launch of the alrajhi capital Saudi Construction Index, which provides new monthly insight into residential, nonresidential and infrastructure activity in the region's largest construction market.
Paul, Andrew and Tim also compare Saudi construction trends with long-running construction PMI surveys in Europe and the UK, where housing activity remains under pressure from cautious demand, higher financing costs and economic uncertainty.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
GCC economies demonstrate resilience in August
Global Economic Outlook: September 2026
Click here for the latest PMI Pulse data wrap
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
Monthly Macro Monitor
Middle East war
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Paul Smith
Guests: Andrew Harker, Tim Moore
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who answers frequently asked questions shaping the macroeconomic outlook: why sovereign yields have been rising, whether AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation and policy rates, and what a weaker US dollar could mean for the global economy. This conversation was recorded in May 2026, and the questions are still top of mind today.
 
Ken explains that sovereign bond yields have moved higher as markets reassess inflation risks, central bank policy expectations and the sustainability of public finances. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, while concerns about second-round effects — from input costs to food prices — have added pressure. At the same time, investors are increasingly focused on high budget deficits and rising debt burdens, which may require higher returns to hold sovereign bonds.
 
The conversation then turns to the UK, where sovereign yields have risen more than in other G7 markets. Ken highlights the UK's persistent inflation challenge, the prospect of renewed Bank of England rate hikes, elevated public debt and lingering investor sensitivity after the gilt-market volatility of 2022.
 
Kristen and Ken also discuss whether an AI-driven productivity pickup could eventually lead to lower inflation and central bank policy rates. Ken describes this as an active and complex debate, especially in the US. While AI investment may support stronger productivity, he cautions that demand linked to AI spending has already increased, while the productivity gains have not yet been fully realized.
 
Finally, the episode examines the US dollar. Ken explains that the dollar had weakened notably before rebounding during the early stages of the Middle East conflict, as safe-haven flows returned. Looking through near-term volatility, he says several fundamentals — including the dollar's still-high valuation, persistent US current account deficits and expected shifts in interest-rate differentials — point to further depreciation over time. A weaker dollar could help some economies offset imported inflation from higher energy prices, but for the US, the impact would be more mixed, particularly if the decline were sharp.
 
More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:
How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook: August 2026
Picture This: US-Japan Yen intervention signals growing concern over global financial stability
For S&P Global subscribers (login required):
How El Niño will impact growth and inflation across major Latin American economies
Policy rate prospects
Credits:
Host: Kristen Hallam
Guest: Ken Wattret
Produced By: Kristen Hallam
Edited By: Marz Marcello
Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun