F-World: The Fragility Podcast

Qahir Dhanani is a Managing Director and Partner at Boston Consulting Group, where he leads engagements with multilateral and international financial institutions, as well as with donor and philanthropic agencies. Prior to joining BCG, Qahir held senior positions at the World Bank, including Advisor to the CEO, and began his career at the Aga Khan Development Network. Born in Kenya and raised in Canada, Qahir brings a deeply international perspective to his work on development finance, institutional reform, and global governance. He joined us for this conversation in a personal capacity.
We open by exploring Qahir's personal journey into the world of multilateralism, shaped by his family's move from Kenya to Canada at the dawn of the first Gulf War. From there, we ask Qahir to define multilateralism beyond the summits and headlines, and he makes the case that international cooperation quietly underpins the mundane parts of everyday life - from telecommunications to air travel. We trace the evolution of multilateral institutions across decades of geopolitical change & discuss why today's talk of institutional gridlock echoes tensions the system has weathered before, from the Cold War to the end of globalization's heyday.
The conversation turns to the concept of "variable geometry" and the growing role of coalitions of small & middle powers in tackling shared challenges, from digital governance to AI regulation. We explore Qahir’s co-authored article in Devex on the priorities facing the incoming UN Secretary-General, discussing the difference between acting as a custodian versus an architect of the institution, and what it will take to rebuild trust with citizens, politicians, and UN staff alike. Qahir also shares a memorable analogy about institutional "salamander rules" to explain how bureaucratic processes calcify over time and how AI could help institutions become faster & leaner without abandoning the safeguards that matter. We close by discussing how the private sector's relationship with multilateral institutions is shifting from transactional to collaborative, and why the next wave of innovation and investment opportunity lies in Africa.
*****
Qahir Dhanani
BCG: https://www.bcg.com/about/people/experts/qahir-dhanani
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/qahir
*****
Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, & Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 
X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/
Website: https://f-world.org
Music:"Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.
Video editing by: Alex Mitran - Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran),or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)
EPISODE RESOURCES:
Qahir Dhanani, Jim Larson, “Thenext UN chief must architect a new era of multilateralism,” DEVEX, March 11, 2026
https://www.devex.com/news/the-next-un-chief-must-architect-a-new-era-of-multilateralism-112027

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Intro
00:01:20 Qahir's background
00:03:45 What is multilateralism & what has it brought us?
00:08:07 Responding to the critique that multilateral institutions are stuck in the past
00:12:42 Is globalization the driving force of multilateralism: Variable geometry and coalitions
00:14:54 The cost of systemic fragmentation
00:17:45 Sovereignty vs. shared benefit – the case for mini-lateral cooperation
00:21:09 Digital sovereignty & the case for global AI governance
00:25:22 Custodian vs. architect: what the next UN Secretary General must be
00:29:30 Reform, modernization, & representation – the challenges ahead
00:34:58 Rebuilding trust & cutting through institutional bureaucracy
00:40:21 Using AI to streamline institutions without cutting corners
00:43:07 What does the private sector want from multilateral reform?
00:48:14 Public-private partnership in practice
00:51:01 Innovation & investment opportunities beyond Europe and the US
00:55:05 Advice for the next UN Secretary-General

Dina Saleh is the Regional Director of the Near East, North Africa, and Europe Division at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) – the only specialized global development institution exclusively focused on rural transformation. With more than 20 years of international experience, Dina has spearheaded agriculture and rural development initiatives across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. She has also worked with both the private sector and international organizations like the UN, gaining a unique perspective on development across fragile and conflict-affected regions.

We begin our conversation by exploring Dina’s journey, starting with her early life in Yemen and Kenya, where agriculture was intrinsic to her formative years through her family’s business in agricultural trade and her schooling. This
sparked her passion for rural development and gave her firsthand insights into how food systems work, ultimately leading to her current role at IFAD.

We then move on to the multifaceted challenges of working in fragile states like Somalia & Sudan, where conflict, climate change, and the lack of infrastructure severely hinder agricultural productivity. Dina discusses the delicate balance of working with both pastoralists and settled farmers, addressing conflicts over land and resources through innovative infrastructure solutions, as well as community-driven governance.

Our discussion also delves into gender dynamics in rural development. Dina shares a striking example from Sudan, where women were initially barred from engaging in agricultural development initiatives. Working with local leaders, IFAD was able to empower women to participate in economic activities like food processing and home-based production. These success stories underscore the importance of patience and sustained effort in achieving long-term development goals.

Tune in to hear more about the role of agriculture in poverty reduction and how organizations like IFAD are adapting their strategies to meet the complex and dynamic needs of fragile states!

*****

Dina Saleh

IFAD: https://www.ifad.org/en/w/people/dina-saleh

*****

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Updated approach to IFAD engagement in fragile situations https://www.ifad.org/en/w/publications/updated-approach-to-ifad-engagement-in-fragile-situations

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:08 Dina’s story 

00:03:19 Subsistence farming & the shift to commercialization 

00:06:11 The roots of fragility in Yemen

00:08:35 Agriculture as a path to poverty reduction 

00:12:19 Defining food systems 

00:13:49 IFAD’s approach to nutrition in rural communities

00:16:18 What makes food systems fragile or resilient

00:18:12 Key trends in agriculture

00:20:00 What is IFAD?

00:23:26 IFAD in Somalia

00:28:44 Investment tools

00:31:18 IFAD’s financial instruments

00:33:15 How IFAD’s financing helps vulnerable populations

00:35:30 Role of technology in helping farmers

00:39:20 IFAD’s engagement in fragile contexts

00:45:20 Balancing crisis response & prevention

00:49:29 Measuring impact & results in fragile states

00:52:58 Working in conflict zones

00:56:15 Real-life challenges in fragile communities

00:59:45 Gender-specific challenges in rural development

01:03:30 Development misconceptions

01:08:19 Food self-sufficiency vs. trade

01:12:02 Fair trade & value for farmers

01:14:36 Water - food - energy nexus

01:18:05 Obstacles to coordination

01:20:15 Role of fertilizer 

01:22:28 Hope for the future

01:25:27 Wrap-up

Philippe Vogeleer is a chartered director specialized in partnerships between companies, governments, and international organizations. Until March 2024 he was the Global Head of Corporate Business Development for Vodafone. Prior to joining Vodafone, Philippe held senior positions for Ooredoo, Orange, and Deloitte. He has lived in 10 countries and worked in more than 100. He holds a master’s degree in law, a master’s degree in media and communications, and an Executive MBA. Philippe now advises a small number of companies as Non-Executive Director and supports the work of international charities, including Global Citizen. He is also a Visiting Lecturer at INSEAD.
We start our conversation by learning about Philippe’s international background, his early interest in human development, and how he discovered the importance of mobile phones and satellite technology. We then take a stroll through the decades with Philippe highlighting the big business opportunities for the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector in each time period - from radio waves in the 1980s and 90s, to networks and services in the 2000s and 2010s. He also reminds us that most people don’t have a laptop, accessing digital tools only on mobile phones, and that today’s opportunity lies in bringing access to the devices.  
We then shift to discussing how we can define the ICT sector and what we mean by digitalization. Also, we ask Philippe to help us understand what fragility looks like on the ground, from an ICT perspective, and how the ICT industry and digitalization can help counter fragility. This leads us to talk about what is needed to build a business case in fragile states or even in conflict areas, how you can engage external partners, and how to convince internal decision makers to take on the risk of investing under more difficult conditions. We also discuss the benefits of digitalization for governments, the main obstacles to closing the digital divide, and the role of AI in digitalization. We wrap up our conversation by considering the finite nature of money, how it can best catalyze digitalization, and the potential future for the ICT industry.
Watch or listen to the episode for so many more insights from Philippe Vogeleer!
*****
Philippe Vogeleer
[email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-partners-for-digital-development
*****
Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 
X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/
Website: https://f-world.org
Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.
Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:02:11 Philippe’s background – people, places, ideas that charted his path
00:08:16 ICT’s big business opportunities through the decades
00:14:02 What is digitalization? What is the ICT sector?
00:18:13 What is fragility? What does it look like from an ICT perspective?
00:26:15 How can ICT and digitalization help counter fragility?
00:34:30 The business case for digitalization in fragile states and low-income countries
00:45:31 Digitalization benefits for governments
00:54:30 Obstacles to closing the digital divide
01:00:28 The role of AI in digitalization: risks or benefits
01:08:56 The finite nature of money & how to best catalyze digitalization
01:14:01 Potential future for the ICT industry
01:21:03 Wrap-up

Stefan Dercon is Professor of Economic Policy at Oxford University, where he also directs the Center for the Study of African Economics. The author of 5 books and many studies, Stefan has had a distinguished career as an academic and policy advisor on economic development. His accomplishments are many. To name just a few:  between 2011 and 2017, he was Chief Economist of the Department of International Development (DFID), the government department in charge with the UK’s aid policy and spending; between 2020-2022, he was the Development Policy Advisor to successive Foreign Secretaries at the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Stefan is a virtuoso of development! His approach to our conversation was equal parts exciting and instructive, a style that also comes across in his writing, making his book very hard to put down.

We start by learning about Stefan: his experience growing up in Belgium, being taught by Catholic priests about African socialism, Ujamaa and Julius Nyerere, and Marx and discovering his interest in economics as a means of pursuing development. His early career in Tanzania and Ethiopia highlighted the relationship between risk and poverty and the need to consider uncertainty when engaging in policy advice or research. We then shift to talking about the four propositions that compete as diagnoses of core problems of poverty and development that Stefan outlines in his book: poor initial endowments, market failures that trap the poor in poverty, market failures that are costly for poor countries, weak institutions. He gives us an overview and tells us why the propositions fall short on explaining the successes and failures of development. We also talk about the most important trends in development in recent decades: the dramatic decrease in poverty globally, the Africanization of poverty, and the increasing concentration of poverty in fragile states.

The conversation then turns to the elites, what values drive them, and why would they gamble on a development bargain.  We talk about the role of natural resources, political systems, and how external actors can influence the emergence of development bargains. We also discuss the role of Western and Chinese elites in development bargains and what is good policy advice.

*****

Stefan Dercon

Website: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/people/stefan-dercon

X: https://twitter.com/gamblingondev

LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/stefan-dercon-45927b104

*****

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - x.com/alexmmitran, linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran

EPISODE RESOURCES

Stefan Dercon, “Gambling on Development: Why some Countries Win and Others Lose,” Hurst, London, 2022. https://www.gamblingondevelopment.com

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:24 Stefan’s background

00:02:49 Economics of poverty

00:04:16 Connection between risk & poverty

00:08:16 Brief overview of development thinking

00:14:57 Recent trends in development

00:19:55 The Africanization of poverty & What is fragility

00:25:39 The problem of fixed mental models of fragility

00:28:47 Who are the elites

00:41:11 The gambling in development bargains

00:47:24 What values drive the elites

00:54:25 Natural resource & political systems in dev. bargains

00:58:51 The role of Western & Chinese elites in dev. bargains

01:09:14 Are the elite bargains in the West still dev. bargains

01:19:09 Citizens’ role in dev. bargains

01:29:22 External actors & the emergence of dev. bargains

01:41:28 “Peace is ugly” – can international institutions accept it

01:51:20 Development is 50% history & 50% agency

02:00:40 Private sector role in the dev. bargain

02:09:48 What is good policy advice

02:19:56 Wrap-up

Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis, a researcher center of the Spanish National Research Council. He also directs the master’s program in Data Science for Decision Making at the Barcelona School of Economics. Most recently, his research focus has been on how conflict can be predicted using millions of newspaper articles – a project which drives the conflictforecast.org website. This research project has become a key resource for global work on conflict prevention and has led to collaborations with the Spanish Central Bank, the German Federal Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the UN, World Bank, and many others.

This conversation was a tour de force and covered a lot of topics: from taxes and trust, to fiscal capacity as a dimension of state capacity, to fragility and the macroeconomic implications of violent conflict, to forecasting conflict using machine learning and implications for policy makers.

Hannes gives us a live demonstration of conflictforecast.org and if you’re interested in how AI can help us forecast conflict then this is the conversation for you!

*****

Hannes Mueller

Website: https://www.hannesfelixmueller.com

Conflict forecast: https://conflictforecast.org

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannes-mueller-research/

*****

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. 

X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES

Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller. 2012. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review.

Timothy Besley, Hannes Mueller, Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility In: Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States. Eds: Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza, and Peter Montiel, Oxford University Press (2021). International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198853091.003.0009

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 20, Issue 6, December 2022

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, & Alessandro Ruggieri. 2022. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2236.

TIMESTAMPS

(00:00:00) Introduction

(00:01:17) Hannes’s background

(00:03:26) Shock therapy in Poland vs. Russia

(00:05:42) How Hannes’s interest in politics shapes his research

(00:09:09) Institution formation, fragility, & fiscal capacity

(00:16:05) Trust, taxation, & public services

(00:22:06) What is fragility

(00:29:32) Relationship between fragility & violent conflict

(00:33:11) Macroeconomic implications of conflict

(00:37:21) Does conflict always lead to fragility

(00:41:21) Forecasting fragility vs causal understanding

(00:43:42) Human factors & forecasting fragility

(00:50:42) Prevention & forecasting

(00:55:09) Why is conflict prediction a hard problem

(00:58:19) Machine learning for conflict prevention

(01:03:21) What is a good model for conflict prevention?

(01:11:05) Text availability by language for training the model

(01:15:54) Conflictforecast.org demo

(01:25:31) What can you ask the model & what you shouldn’t ask

(01:37:47) How can the model inform policy action & prevention

(01:44:36) How can conflictforecast.org augment human decision making

(01:49:51) The role of stabilizing factors in cross country comparisons

(01:54:22) Hannes’s data wish list

(02:01:26) Do LLMs like ChatGPT impact the model’s performance

(02:04:37) Is there a role for sentiment analysis

(02:08:45) Future research goals

(02:13:08) Institutional myopia

(02:15:27) Should we bring back salons

(02:19:15) Wrap-up