Europe Inside Out

The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled its rejection of the values that have long underpinned EU-U.S. relations.
Rosa Balfour, Jan Techau, and Nathalie Tocci ask whether Brussels must now chart its own course.
Carnegie Europe will be addressing the toughest questions facing the EU in its new project “Europe Head-to-Head.” Follow our work for insights and discussions shaping the continent's future.
[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:29] Is Europe Able to Divorce From the United States?, [00:16:15] Europe’s Military Industrial Complex, [00:19:42] Europe’s Competitiveness and Lack of Trust, [00:33:25] Is Trumpism a Structural Trend?, [00:46:26] The Future of EU-U.S. Relations.
Jan Techau, Nathalie Tocci, January 7, 2026, “Can Europe Trust the United States Again?,” Carnegie Europe.
Rosa Balfour, January 6, 2026, “The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Rosa Balfour, September 22, 2025, “The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0,” Carnegie Europe.
Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B.,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Jan Techau, September 2025, “The Future of European Integration: A Threshold Moment of Hope,” Horizons Summer 2025, Issue No. 31, Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development.
Nathalie Tocci, January 13, 2026, “Breaking with a toxic partner: Why Trumpism may actually benefit Europe in the long run,” The Insider.
Nathalie Tocci, January 11, 2026, “Europe on high alert in the face of Trump’s strategic onslaught,” El País.
Nathalie Tocci, December 12, 2025, “How Europe Lost,” Foreign Affairs.
Nathalie Tocci, December 10, 2025, “Salvaging Global Order in the Post-American Era,” BKHS Magazine.
Nathalie Tocci, December 5, 2025, “Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?,” Foreign Policy.

AI-powered technologies are transforming the nature of warfare, with profound implications for European security and the EU’s regulatory framework.
Thomas de Waal, Raluca Csernatoni, and Jessica Dorsey examine how these dual-use systems blur civilian and military lines, and their implications for strategic, legal, and ethical accountability.
[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:40] The Evolution of AI on the Battlefield, [00:08:48] Responsibility Gaps on the Use of AI, [00:20:48] Can Europe Play a Role in Regulating AI?
Raluca Csernatoni, October 30, 2025, “Corporate Geopolitics: When Billionaires Rival States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “Tech Diplomacy 2.0: Examining the Intersections Between Industry and Governments in International Relations,” International Journal of Cyber Diplomacy.
Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “The Future of Foreign Policy in the Age of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies,” EU Cyber Direct.
Raluca Csernatoni et al., August 11, 2025, “Myth, Power, and Agency: Rethinking Artificial Intelligence, Geopolitics and War,” Minds and Machines.
Raluca Csernatoni, May 20, 2025, “The EU’s AI Power Play: Between Deregulation and Innovation,” Carnegie Europe.
Raluca Csernatoni, July 17, 2024, “Governing Military AI Amid a Geopolitical Minefield,” Carnegie Europe.
Jessica Dorsey, January 13, 2026, "The erosion of human(e) judgement in targeting? Quantification logics, AI-enabled decision support systems and proportionality assessments in IHL," Cambridge University Press.
Jessica Dorsey, December 14, 2025, “Drug Boats, Drone Strikes and the Dangers of Avoiding Mirrors,” Opinio Juris.
Jessica Dorsey, June 27, 2025, “AI-Enabled Decision-Support Systems in the Joint Targeting Cycle: Legal Challenges, Risks, and the Human(e) Dimension,” International Law Studies, Vol. 106.
Jessica Dorsey, May 2025, “Proportionality under Pressure: AI-Based DecisionSupport Systems, the Reasonable Commander Standard and Human(e) Judgment in Targeting,” The Hague Center for Strategic Studies.

Despite Labour’s landslide victory in last year’s general election, support for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now sharply eroding.
Thomas de Waal, Peter Kellner, and Anne McElvoy unpack the rise of Reform UK and whether a pragmatic reengagement with the EU could revive growth in Britain.
[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:28] Europe’s Challenges, [00:06:40] The EU’s Need to Reform, [00:17:55] The Future of Europe.
Peter Kellner, October 18, 2025, “Reform’s Poll Lead Will Shrink,” The New World.
Peter Kellner, October 10, 2025, “Voters Are Not Listening to Labour,” Prospect Magazine.
Peter Kellner, September 22, 2025, “A History Lesson for Starmer and Badenoch,” Prospect Magazine.
Peter Kellner, May 14, 2025, “The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset,” Carnegie Europe.
Anne McElvoy, December 5, 2025, “Despite Trump-pleasing Defense Boost, Britain’s Military Is Braced for Cuts,” Politico.
Anne McElvoy, November 20, 2025, “MAGA’s British invasion,” Politico.
Anne McElvoy, December 8, 2025, “Labour Together? Who Is Hastening the PM's Downfall,” Politics at Sam and Anne's.
Anne McElvoy, December 3, 2025, “Who Is Behind Farage-Tory Pact Plot?,” Politics at Sam and Anne's.
Anne McElvoy, November 27, 2025, “The Budget's Hidden Problems Revealed,” Politics at Sam and Anne's.

Between high-level reports, bold statements, and internal negotiation, Europe struggles to outline a cohesive geostrategic vision for its place in the world. 
Sophia Besch, Dan Baer, and Rosa Balfour explore why the EU often fails to establish long-term solutions to the challenges it faces, and explain how Europe can overcome its political and institutional paralysis. 
[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:28] Europe’s Challenges, [00:06:40] The EU’s Need to Reform, [00:17:55] The Future of Europe.
Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura, September 22, 2025, “The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0,” Carnegie Europe.
Sophia Besch, June 26, 2025, “The Price of Protection,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Dan Baer, May 13, 2025, “Trump’s Brain Drain Will Be Europe’s Gain,” Foreign Policy.
Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Sophia Besch and Erik Brown, December 16, 2024, “Securing Europe’s Subsea Data Cables,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Dan Baer and Sophia Besch, December 12, 2024, “NATO’s Northeast Countries Have a Template for Europe’s New Security Reality,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.”

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems to be holding, but much work will need to be done before it can transform into a lasting peace.
Rym Momtaz, Pierre Vimont, and Maha Yahya break down reactions from European and Arab leaders to Trump’s Gaza peace plan and discuss if Europe has a role to play.
[00:00:00] Intro, [00:02:24] The Ceasefire in Gaza, [00:17:53] Does Europe Have a Role to Play? [00:24:13] Can There Be Genuine Peace in Gaza?
Rym Momtaz, October 7, 2025, “The Trump Gaza Peace Plan Needs the EU, Too,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Rym Momtaz, June 10, 2025, “Europeans and Arabs Must Take Historic Steps Toward a Palestinian State,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Rym Momtaz, May 15, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: Should the EU Suspend its Association Agreement With Israel?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Pierre Vimont, July 22, 2025, “Reinventing European Diplomacy,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Pierre Vimont, October 10, 2023, “Europe’s Moment of Powerlessness in the Middle East,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Maha Yahya, February 17, 2025, “The Fatal Flaw of the New Middle East,” Foreign Affairs