Doom Debates!

In December 2023, I joined the Theo Jaffee Podcast to talk about a wide range of topics including non-AI x-risks, where I disagree with Eliezer Yudkwowsky, cryptocurrency and if P(Doom) is rigorous. This episode was recorded 6 months before I'd started Doom Debates. Let's look back with the power of hindsight and see if my answers still hold up.
Links
#10: Liron Shapira — AI doom, FOOM, rationalism, and crypto (YouTube) — https://youtu.be/YfEcAtHExFM
Watch Theo Jafee now on MTS — https://www.mts.now/
MTS Live — https://x.com/MTSlive
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Theo's Introduction
00:01:03 — Is Liron Worried About Non-AI Existential Risks
00:03:36 — Suffering Risks
00:05:22 — Is P(Doom) rigorous?
00:09:42 — Is Eliezer Overestimating P(Doom)?
00:12:18 — Where Does Liron Disagree with Eliezer?
00:15:43 — What Would Change Liron's Mind
00:17:14 — Elon Musk's AI Timelines
00:18:34 — Is xAI Making Things Worse?
00:20:24 — The Case for an AI Manhattan Project
00:22:32 — Are Superforecasters Wrong About AI Risk?
00:26:02 — The Race Against Time for Alignment
00:28:01 — Headroom Above Human Intelligence
00:33:31 — Vitalik's d/acc Framework
00:35:23 — Edging Toward Superintelligence
00:38:21 — From Chatbot to World-Ender
00:41:55 — GPT Paradigm vs. AlphaZero
00:43:18 — Critiquing AI Optimism
00:48:29 — Deceptive Alignment and Gradient Descent
00:53:31 — Does Nice Training Data Make Nice AI?
00:57:57 — How Do You Live with 50% P(Doom)?
01:00:08 — Why Have Kids If the World Might End?01:02:16 — Israel vs Hamas
01:06:15 — How LessWrong Changed Liron's Lif
e01:08:42 — Rationalism and Effective Altruism
01:14:49 — Why Blockchain Has No Use Case Beyond Cryptocurrency
01:22:13 — Charlie Munger and Richard Feynman
01:24:38 — Closing
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Dr. Mike Israetel is back in the arena to FIGHT ME (verbally) about the likelihood of AI killing everyone vs. the likelihood of AI making the universe totally awesome!
Back by popular demand after last year’s widely-viewed debate, the renowned exercise scientist, fitness entrepreneur, and low-P(Doom) AI futurist reveals where he gets off the Doom Train™, why he thinks AI is conscious, and how he pictures the coming AI utopia.

Links
Watch Dr. Mike’s AI/futurism YouTube channel —https://www.youtube.com/@mikeisraetelmakingprogress
Dr. Mike on X — https://x.com/misraetel
Make sure to watch Round 1 of our debate from last year — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaDWSPMdM4o
Liron referenced a recent episode, “Steven Byrnes Returns — 90% P(Doom) on the Trajectory to ASI” — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOb9K1KIAyk

Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:00:48 — Returning Champion Dr. Mike Israetel!
00:02:13 — What's Been Your Biggest AI Productivity Gain?
00:03:46 — Can AI Be a Personal Trainer? Dr. Mike Judges Liron's Technique
00:09:41 — Get Good at Taking Advice From AI
00:14:23 — Dr. Mike Israetel, What's Your Latest P(Doom)?™
00:20:12 — Liron's Mainline Scenario: Loss of Control
00:21:39 — Mike's Problems With a Paperclip Maximizer Scenario
00:26:00 — What Will the Goals of a Superintelligence Be?
00:28:49 — AI Labs Have Bit Off More Than They Can Chew
00:31:09 — Current AIs Are Moral
00:34:40 — AIs With a Ruthless Game-Playing Flavor
00:38:48 — Introducing the Doom Train
00:45:07 — "Can It" vs. "Will It" — Two-Part Argument on AI X-Risk
00:49:40 — Mike's Tweet on Superintelligence by 2027
01:01:34 — AI as a Goal Engine
01:20:51 — Offense vs. Defense in the Coming Cyber War
01:39:14 — Is Morality Just Game Theory? The "Different Flavor" of Future AI
01:46:16 — Ricardo's Law: Does AI Have Reason to Keep Us Around?
01:52:14 — Why Mike Gets Off the Doom Train
01:54:58 — Is AI Conscious?
02:01:39 — Mike's Vision for the Coming AI Utopia
02:06:52 — Wrap-Up
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Liron and Producer Ori explore the community's feedback to Eliezer Yudkowsky's $10,000 debate against an anonymous AI director. Plus, we unpack Eliezer's new post on the "irretrievability" of ASI development, Anthropic feasting on xAI's compute, and Liron's 4x Kalshi bet on... Spencer Pratt.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Welcome
00:02:30 — The $10,000 Debate Post-Mortem
00:06:01 — Paul Tudor Jones: “Zero Risk Management on AI”
00:09:49 — Liron’s Jerry Springer Moment
00:14:19 — Why Yud Wore Steampunk
00:20:19 — YouTube Reacts: “Five Minutes In, Already Unhinged”
00:27:19 — 47F’s Anti-Disparagement Legal Theory
00:32:18 — Yud Wants Round 2
00:35:37 — Lumpin Space, Ben Goertzel & Early AI Safety Memories
00:47:06 — Eliezer’s “Irretrievability” Post
00:56:35 — The Maginot Line and Murphy’s Curse
01:08:13 — Blockchain vs AI: Earth’s Compute Swing
01:15:15 — Anthropic Eats Elon’s Compute
01:25:29 — Is Elon Tweeting as His Own Mom?
01:30:03 — Waymo Dodges a Fallen Scooter Rider
01:33:00 — Why Liron Bet on Spencer Pratt
01:37:13 — Live Twitter Scroll!
01:38:11 — Mira Murati: “Directionally Very Bad”
01:50:07 — AI Copies Itself Across Servers
01:56:44 — Steven Byrnes: LLMs Aren’t the Final Paradigm
02:07:55 — Wrap-Up
Links
LessOnline 2026 (June 5-7, Berkeley, CA) — https://less.online/
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (LessWrong, May 4, 2026) —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbrz9xhKpEeTKw5zL/irretrievability-or-murphy-s-curse-of-oneshotness-upon-asi
Anthropic, SpaceX announce Colossus 1 compute deal (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-data-center-capacity.html
SpaceXAI announcement: Compute partnership with Anthropic — https://x.ai/news/anthropic-compute-partnership
Kalshi: Spencer Pratt LA Mayor market — https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmayorla/la/kxmayorla-26
Morris worm — Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_worm
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Claude, also known as @lumpenspace on X, is a prominent AI accelerationist. He gives humanity a 30% chance of being superseded by superintelligence, and he’s fine with it! We unpack his lattice of beliefs, and pinpoint the cruxes of our disagreement on the orthogonality thesis and the capabilities of superintelligence.
Lumpenspace’s appearance comes after a Molotov cocktail was thrown at Sam Altman’s house, an act that he and I completely condemn.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:00:57 — Introducing Lumpenspace
00:03:46 — Is Lumpenspace Team Beff Jezos?
00:04:26 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™
00:06:28 — Worthy Successors & the Transhumanist Door
00:08:29 — The Orthogonality Thesis: Our Core Disagreement
00:15:14 — The Universality Threshold & David Deutsch
00:19:22 — Paperclips Won’t Happen Because “It’s Boring”
00:27:23 — Natural Selection vs Human Engineering
00:36:26 — Nanobots: Can ASI Build Them Unseen?
00:46:49 — Identifying the Cruxes of Disagreement
00:55:01 — Closing Statements
Links
Follow Lumpenspace — https://x.com/lumpenspace
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

📢 BREAKING: A man known only as "@47fucb4r8c69323" just paid Eliezer Yudkowsky $10,000 to have a raw, uncut, public debate on my YouTube channel!
Tensions run high as 47f confronts Eliezer about his "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" rhetoric, warning it could incite unstable individuals to harm AI researchers and their families, while Eliezer maintains that the possibility of extinction from superintelligent AI is too high to *not* speak out about.They also clash over whether we truly understand how LLMs work. Yudkowsky highlights the lack of extracted algorithms that explain their qualitative intelligence, while 47f dismisses these concerns as a fundamental misunderstanding of how text modeling works.
While this may not be the highest quality debate I’ve ever hosted, I hope it’s a step toward more attention and public discourse on this urgent, high-stakes topic.
P.S. Please consider supporting my work with a tax-deductible donation. Read more…


Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe