The Competent Investor

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at 'The Technical Traders'. Chris discusses the broadening of the stock market, with the MAG 7 stocks losing momentum and money rotating into other sectors like semiconductors and small caps. He sees this as a sign of strength, with the market potentially poised for one more big push higher. Chris analyzes the technical indicators, noting the positive price action, bullish moving average trends, and improving sentiment.

Regarding gold and silver, Chris is cautious, viewing the recent rally as a potential bear trap that could quickly reverse. He believes the long-term trends remain bearish, and any further upside will need to break key resistance levels to confirm a shift in the trend. Chris is also closely watching the US dollar, which he believes could continue strengthening, putting further pressure on precious metals. Looking at the broader market, Chris sees potential risks on the horizon, including rising interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a financial crisis. He believes the best strategy is to remain nimble, following the price trends and being quick to protect capital when necessary.

Chris suggests cash and the US dollar as potential defensive positions if a significant market downturn occurs.

Overall, Chris maintains a cautious yet opportunistic outlook, ready to adapt his positioning as market conditions evolve. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on price action and trends rather than emotions or biases when navigating the current market environment.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:16 - Market Broadening Beyond Mag 7
00:03:42 - Price Time Sentiment Factors
00:05:54 - Moving Averages Bullish Signals
00:07:08 - Sentiment And FOMO Analysis
00:13:00 - Currency Dollar Trends
00:15:52 - Interest Rates Outlook
00:21:02 - Oil Chart Analysis
00:26:15 - Gold Silver Behavior Shift
00:34:27 - Lumber Economic Indicator
00:41:23 - Recovery Trap Warning
00:45:55 - New Book & Wrap Up

Guest:

Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.

Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.

A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.
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David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors, maintains his highly bullish short-term outlook for equities, believing the stock market is in the final stages of a 44-year secular bull market that began in 1982. He anticipates a "melt-up" that could drive the S&P 500 to 10,000 and the NASDAQ to 36,000, representing a 30-35% gain compressed into just a few months. He attributes this potential surge not to new liquidity creation, but to existing capital being deployed as market momentum and shifting investor psychology overcome current cautious narratives.

Hunter presents a contrarian view on interest rates, arguing that the recent rise in yields is a counter-trend move tied to oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran. He expects both oil and bond yields to roll over soon, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially falling below 4% and eventually to 3%, providing a tailwind for stocks. He also sees gold and silver breaking out of their multi-month consolidation, setting the stage for a steep rally with targets of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver, potentially topping alongside equities. This melt-up, however, sets the stage for a severe global bust.

Hunter warns that the highly leveraged financial system will face a deflationary crash, potentially an 80% decline in equities, as the Federal Reserve, under Chair Warsh, will be slow to provide liquidity. This bust will force the Fed’s hand, leading to massive money printing that ignites the next cycle. That subsequent cycle, he predicts, will be inflationary and commodity-driven, with oil potentially soaring from a bust low of $30 to $500 a barrel, and precious metals seeing even larger gains over the following decade.

He advises that the coming bust will present a generational buying opportunity in commodities.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:20 - Melt-Up Thesis Update
00:04:19 - 44-Year Bull Market Drivers
00:10:50 - Fed Policy and Liquidity
00:16:47 - Liquidity Catalyst Discussion
00:20:20 - Oil & Market Psychology
00:27:29 - Inflation Fighting and Rates
00:31:48 - U.S. War Economics
00:35:23 - Melt-Up and Metals
00:43:00 - Gold and S&P Ratio
00:45:04 - Housing Market Correction
00:48:10 - Investment Strategies and ETFs
00:49:45 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

David Hunter — Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
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Your host Tom Bodrovics, welcomes investor Eric Yeung, and Gold Fix partner Vince Lanci to discuss recent structural changes in China’s gold market, arguing that reports of China ending retail gold trading are inaccurate. Yeung clarifies that as of July 24, Chinese commercial banks are halting leveraged and forward gold contracts for retail customers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This move does not eliminate these instruments but relocates them to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the new Hong Kong Gold Hub. The goal is to solidify the SGE as a predominantly physical delivery exchange, potentially moving from 70% to over 90% physical delivery, while speculative activity migrates to more appropriate venues.

The conversation frames this as a deliberate chess move by China to prepare its domestic market for a larger international role. By tightening the SGE and channeling liquidity to Hong Kong—which has no capital controls—China aims to project its massive physical gold demand globally and establish gold as a high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) for international collateral, offering an alternative to US Treasury bonds. This reorganization is expected to widen arbitrage opportunities between the SGE and SHFE, further sucking physical gold from Western markets into China.

The participants highlight that Western banks are not being sidelined but are actively participating in this shift, with institutions like J.P. Morgan and Citibank becoming members of the new Hong Kong clearing entity. They contrast China’s methodical, action-oriented approach with the West’s tendency to issue white papers without immediate implementation.

The discussion also touches on central bank buying, noting that China’s official and OTC gold purchases remain robust, supporting prices, while Western retail investors remain absent, likely waiting for a market dip. The overarching theme is that a controlled migration of the global gold market’s center of gravity from West to East is underway, with China carefully building the infrastructure to dominate physical gold pricing and liquidity.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:50 - China Gold Contract Changes
00:05:14 - SGE House in Order
00:07:23 - Market Structure Changing
00:10:20 - Pricing Power Moving East
00:12:13 - New CME Paper Contract
00:14:35 - Market Reorganization Explained
00:16:48 - Arbitrage Opportunities Discussed
00:23:25 - Western Banks Entering Asia
00:26:40 - Old vs New Shopping Mall
00:37:14 - US Gold Revaluation Talk
00:46:25 - Gold Alternative to Treasuries
00:51:43 - Central Bank Gold Buying
00:57:28 - Retail Investors Absent
01:01:35 - Concluding Thoughts

Vince Links
Substack | https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ |
X | https://x.com/Sorenthek |
Zerohedge | https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc |
LinkedIN | https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/ |
X-Bullion | https://x.com/boobsbullion

Guest:

Eric Yeung — Investor and Former Contract Manufacturer In China
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Luke Gromen, president of Forest For The Trees, discussed the challenging fiscal and monetary landscape facing the US once again with your host Tom Bodrovics. With national debt at $39.5 trillion and rising rates, Federal Reserve Chair Worsh confronts a constrained choice: allow treasury market dysfunction or weaken the dollar to manage mounting debt. Gromen argued that shifting issuance to the front end, including discussions around stablecoins, effectively cash-finances deficits, which is inherently inflationary. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent is embracing Hamiltonian economics—high tariffs, increased domestic production, and a neutral reserve asset—as echoed by other administration officials, though this shift demands massive deficits, higher taxes, and capital controls that threaten dollar reserve status.

The conversation highlighted China’s strategic advantages, including its rapid EV adoption and ability to reduce oil demand during conflicts like the Iran situation, which benefits China by weakening Western economies and pushing global trade toward its systems. Gromen emphasized that US reindustrialization is a costly, decades-long endeavor made harder by a lost manufacturing base and skilled workforce. He pointed to gold as a key beneficiary, noting China’s moves to shift citizens into physical gold and regulatory signals from Western banks, all suggesting a coming significant price rise.

For investors, Gromen recommended buying gold, selling long-dated treasuries, and considering electrical infrastructure equities, Japanese industrials, and gold miners, which offer strong cash flow yields and stand to benefit from prolonged geopolitical and economic restructuring.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:20 - Fed Choices on Inflation
00:03:18 - Treasury Market Dysfunction Risks
00:05:40 - Stablecoins Financing Deficits
00:07:45 - US China Geopolitical Competition
00:12:01 - Hamiltonian Economics Explained
00:17:47 - Reshoring Costs and Feasibility
00:23:28 - Iran Conflict Oil Impacts
00:35:10 - China Strategic Benefits
00:54:30 - China & Gold Trading
01:02:00 - Equity Valuations
01:05:20 - Bitcoin Thoughts
01:09:00 - Action Items & Wrap-Up

Guest:

Luke Gromen — President and Founder of FFTT
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
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Rick Rule shared his observations from his recent Rule Symposium investment conference, noting a stark contrast in sentiment between different types of precious metals investors. Seasoned, wealthy participants who save in gold welcomed the 30% price decline as a buying opportunity, while newer adherents were unnerved. Among the high-quality exhibitors, there was uniform optimism, with the best companies and projects finding ample access to capital despite a widely advertised shortage in the junior space. This capital is increasingly coming from sophisticated sources like majors and family offices, not momentum-chasing tourists.

Rule predicted a coming surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) driven by the need for major mining companies to buy sustainability and growth after years of underinvestment and capital discipline. He explained that declining margins from rising input costs and past high-grading practices will force companies to seek pipeline growth through acquisitions, creating significant opportunities for speculators who can identify likely targets. Regarding near-term gold prices, he was cautious, citing a strong US dollar and higher nominal interest rates as headwinds that will likely persist, making dollar-denominated savings superficially attractive. He stressed that the CPI is an unreliable measure of true inflation, as real costs for items like energy and housing are rising much faster than official figures suggest.

For speculators, Rule emphasized avoiding the 85% of essentially valueless junior companies by doing hard work. His primary screen is to invest only with management teams that are part of the serially successful 1%, and to ask them the single most important unanswered question about their asset and how they plan to test it. He also discussed long-term structural underinvestment in the energy sector, highlighting a future supply shortage in oil and the growing certainty around uranium as a baseload power source, leading to his bullish outlook on these sectors.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:50 - Conference Sentiment on Metals
00:06:42 - Quality Companies Access Capital
00:09:47 - M&A Trends in Mining Sector
00:18:00 - Worthless Juniors Phenomenon
00:20:14 - Gold Acting as Risk Asset
00:24:54 - Inflation CPI and Dollar
00:26:45 - Education Versus Emotional Investing
00:31:15 - Portfolio Building Strategies
00:37:05 - Warrants & Private Placements
00:40:00 - Eggs and Basket Positioning
00:44:40 - Energy Shocks and Nuclear
00:53:35 - Battle Bank Services Explained
00:58:39 - Rule Symposium Recordings
01:04:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
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📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

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