Joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, Iran’s retaliation across the region, War Powers Act debate on Capitol Hill. In this recording of a live conversation on Substack, Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer break it all down: What we know so far, what we don’t know, and the biggest questions that will shape what happens next.
Topics of discussion include:
- What’s the end game? If the U.S. is entering a war, the public needs a clear account of why, what success looks like, and how this strategy plausibly achieves it.
- Is there an imminent threat to the U.S.? Based on the administration’s own claims, there isn’t one from the nuclear program.
- Why didn’t the administration seek Congressional authorization? Even President George W. Bush got authorization for the Iraq War.
- What to watch for in the coming days as details firm up: To what extent have Iran’s capabilities been degraded? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz or otherwise disrupt oil shipping infrastructure? Is Ayatollah Khamenei alive?
- The long game questions: What are the second-and third order effects? Will this instability lead to increased risks of terrorism, displacement, and downstream political consequences as we saw with the Arab Spring, the Syrian Civil War, and the Iraq War? What’s the eventual off ramp for the U.S.? What actually happens inside Iran? If the current leadership is toppled, who takes over? And, how is China seeing this – does this create new risks with respect to Taiwan?
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