Jerry Neumann on the Problem With Investing in AI Right Now
AI has made a lot of people fabulously wealthy. But sorry, it's probably not going to be the thing that makes you rich. And if history is any guide, we don't even know who the real AI winners are going to be. That's the thesis from longtime Venture Capitalist (now retired) Jerry Neumann. Earlier this year, Neumann published an article, "AI Will Not Make You Rich," putting the AI boom in the context of previous technological revolutions, such as the shipping container. He points out that a lot of the companies that were early to shipping containers didn't make much money, and that the real winners were the new businesses that emerged later and took advantage of the shipping container to build new business models (think about the likes of Walmart or Target). In this conversation, we talk about why it's so hard to invest in technological revolutions, where we are in the cycle, why he's getting out of VC, and when the big opportunities will eventually emerge. Read more:SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI BetsAI’s $5 Trillion Cost Needs Every Debt Market, JPMorgan Says Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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How Chinese Real Estate Became the Biggest Bubble in History
Land is a weird asset. We need it to be affordable because everyone needs somewhere to live. But for many people, real estate is also their biggest store of wealth — a kind of national piggybank that fuels both personal fortunes and broader economies. Nowhere is that tension sharper than in China, where housing affordability remains a major challenge even as real estate has been a huge driver of wealth for households and companies alike. China's policymakers have now spent years trying to let the air out of China’s property bubble — without causing it to burst completely. In this episode, we speak with Mike Bird, The Economist’s Wall Street editor and author of the new book, The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We talk about how much of China's economic progress has been tied up in real estate, different models of land ownership around the world, and why this particular asset is unlike any other. Read more:New World, Vanke Debt Moves Shake Up China’s Property SectorCapitaLand Is Said to Mull Merging Non-China Assets With Mapletree Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The Viral Milk That Helped Set Off America's Protein Boom
Protein seems to be everywhere these days, with brands from Starbucks to Pepsi jumping on the trend. But the obsession with protein may have started earlier — with a humble dairy product that defied the broader decline in US milk consumption. Fairlife, which uses a specialized filtering process to boost protein and cut sugar and lactose in its milk products, helped spark the modern protein craze that’s unfolded alongside the rise of Ozempic and other GLP-1 drugs. Since Coca-Cola acquired the brand in 2020, Fairlife has become one of the company’s biggest growth drivers. Yet its success also highlights deeper challenges facing the American dairy industry, where per capita milk consumption continues to fall. So how did Fairlife buck the trend? And what does its story reveal about the future of US dairy? On this episode, we speak with Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market
If the government were open, we'd be getting a jobs report today. But as it is, we're in this blackout of official economic data. That's unfortunate, because the economy is already in a very confusing spot, and so any additional data right now would be very helpful in figuring out where things are heading. In the absence of Non-Farm Payrolls, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about the worsening state of the labor market, and why he thinks the Federal Reserve needs to step in before the unemployment rate deteriorates further. We also talk about the role AI is (or isn't) playing in the labor market.Read more: US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 YearsFed’s Hammack Says Inflation a Bigger Concern Than Labor MarketSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Dmitry Shevelenko on Perplexity's Vision for Reshaping the Internet
The news business isn't a great one these days. At least for a lot of legacy outlets (newspapers, cable networks, print magazines etc.), the Internet has obliterated their business model. And now AI is coming along and there's a risk that it makes conditions even worse, because unlike in the glory days of the search era, the user doesn't even have to click to get what they're looking for. So how does an AI company like Perplexity, which combines search and AI to create a real-time destination for learning about the news, affect industry economics? On this episode, which was recorded live at Lazard's Foursquare conference (an annual gathering for business leaders in sports, media, and entertainment), we speak with Perplexity's Chief Business Officer Dmitry Shevelenko. We talk about the company's relationship with the news business, a new battle against Amazon, and the general economic and finance environment for hot AI startups. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.
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