War on the Rocks

When is the risk of war the highest? And what should the United States be doing about it? One of the most important but underappreciated questions in international politics is how states think about the future balance of power. Countries that believe their position is improving often choose patience. Those who fear their position is deteriorating may feel pressure to act before their advantages disappear. In this episode, Ryan is joined by Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao to explore how Chinese leaders may be thinking about time, power, and Taiwan. 

This episode is sponsored by Kibu, which ensures you always know who's on the other end of every conversation, wherever it happens. Learn more about Kibu at warontherocks.com/kibu

Rose Gottemoeller joined Ryan in Washington. They discussed how the West might think about relations with Russia once the war with Ukraine ends, as well as nuclear diplomacy and other critical issues. Gottemoeller was the deputy secretary general of NATO and, before that, served as a senior State Department official. She is currently at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and has a new book out called Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and US-Russia Relations after the Cold War (Stanford University Press).

Gen. Frank Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, sat down with Ryan to discuss the vision behind the command's new Autonomous Warfare Command and what it signals for the future of military operations in the Western Hemisphere. Donovan explains how SOUTHCOM aims to move drones and autonomous systems beyond tactical experimentation and connect them to strategic effect: disrupting cartel networks designated as terrorist organizations, strengthening cooperation with allies and partners, and giving the command new ways to see, decide, and act across a complex region.
 
This episode was brought to you by NODA. Find out more about our friends at NODA at warontherocks.com/noda

Hungary has turned the page. After 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán, opposition leader Péter Magyar has emerged as the winner by a landslide. Ryan is joined by Sándor Ésik, the lawyer and writer behind the Hungarian Muse, to understand how Orbán built his "soft-authoritarian" system, how it failed to stave off Magyar's challenge, and what comes next. Of course, Orbán was anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russian, and antagonistic towards the European Union, so they also discuss what a post-Orbán Hungary means on those fronts. And, as a bonus, Sándor shares the bizarre story of how Orbán's son — an Army officer — planned a crusade of sorts in Africa.

Michael Kofman joined Ryan at a live event earlier this year to discuss the performance of American defense technology in Ukraine and why it often falls short. They examine the challenges of fielding and iterating systems in combat, from poor implementation and weak feedback loops to deeper mismatches between design and battlefield reality. They also explore what it takes to succeed in this environment and what it means for future conflicts.
 
Thanks to Leonid Capital Partners for hosting the event at which this podcast was recorded.