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Red Flags Rising

Michael Huneke & Brent Carlson
Red Flags Rising
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  • Affiliates Rule Aftermath – Finding the Right Path Forward
    Mike and Brent take an even deeper dive into the “Affiliates” or “50%” Rule announced by the Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) on September 29, 2025. They identify several misperceptions in the public discussion, explain why they are misperceptions, and identify the pitfalls of operating under those misperceptions—especially in response to inquiries by BIS about pre-rule due diligence on affiliates of entities on the entity list. Specifically, they discuss why the Affiliates Rule is a close cousin to the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s own 50% rule, but why and how BIS’s Affiliates Rule serves different national security objectives and operates a bit differently (02:42); whether the Affiliates Rule brings new compliance burdens and, if so, risk-based due diligence strategies and likely questions from BIS regarding why (10:26); why in the current geopolitical context the benefit of local, boots-on-the-ground compliance might be overstated—or significantly discounted by the U.S. government—and what to do about it (16:18); why it would be a mistake to think that BIS is not today able to bring enforcement actions based on the Affiliate Rule, especially given their ability to bring enforcement actions on the “full” definition of knowledge to include “an awareness of a high probability” (19:26); and why it is dangerous to think of “knowledge” as only “actual knowledge,” and thereby misperceiving that the new Affiliates Rule—by reminding everyone that the catch-all provision under which the Entity List is promulgated is a strict-liability regulation, even as to awareness—has someone taken away a previously available “absence of actual knowledge” defense (23:00).Mike and Brent then offer practical tips for applying for the license available under the Affiliates Rule for situations where the exporter, reexporter, or transferor is aware of “red flags” as to ownership that it cannot resolve through risk-based due diligence (28:20).Mike and Brent then conclude with a special edition of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up,” in which Brent offers some valuable self-reflection (34:58).More about Brent: www.redflagsrising.comContact Brent: [email protected] about Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/, https://www.morganlewis.com/bios/michaelhunekeContact Mike: [email protected]’s “Export Control Decision Tree”: https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C/part-732/appendix-Supplement%20No.%201%20to%20Part%20732
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  • The Long-Awaited "50% Rule" - Key Takeaways and Liability Pitfalls to Avoid
    Mike and Brent return with their take on a hotter-than-hot topic, the Bureau of Industry & Security’s new “50% Rule,” effective yesterday, September 29, 2025. Mike and Brent discuss the news of the rule’s announcement and the basics of what it does (00:46); the fact that the rule was effective immediately upon filing for public review, i.e., on September 29, 2025 (02:24); the fact that 50% is not some threshold under which risk goes away (06:19); how commentary suggesting that a “loophole” has been closed is not entirely accurate because such a loophole never existed in the first place (08:12); the requirements (including a description of due diligence performed) under a new, unique license application process (09:45); what enforcement risks are likely to arise in the government’s implementation of the new rule, especially if the government compares pre-rule trade flows to post-rule trade flows (10:43); the importance of not making a quick decision in how to respond to the new rule that you might later regret (12:23); the dangers of misreading the new rule to permit entity-shifting as an appropriate response (15:53); BIS’s caution that the rest of the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (EAR) still apply, separately from the Entity List (18:43); the admonition by BIS that “exporters, reexporters, and transferors have an affirmative responsibility to know the ownership of the foreign companies that are parties to a transaction” (19:45); the statement in the rule that those same actors “must adopt a risk-based compliance program to assist them in complying with these requirements” (20:14); the new “Red Flag 29” added to the BIS Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Guidance (21:05); and the importance of the explanatory text’s reference to “control” (irrespective of ownership) by a listed entity as a “red flag” requiring further due diligence (21:59).Mike and Brent conclude with another installment, back by popular demand, of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” segment (24:57).Brent’s new contact information: [email protected]'s original NYU PCCE blog post, "When Loopholes Create Liability Pitfalls: A Fresh Look at Export Controls" (Aug. 25, 2023): https://wp.nyu.edu/compliance_enforcement/2023/08/25/29814/Mike’s new contact information: [email protected] about Brent: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-carlson-41ba692/More about Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/The U.S. export controls “Country List” (Supplement No. 1 to Part 740): https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C/part-740/appendix-Supplement%20No.%201%20to%20Part%20740The BIS Press Release (with a link to the new rule): https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-expands-entity-list-cover-affiliates-listed-entities
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  • Open One Eye, Close One Eye
    Mike & Brent break down the investigative report by the Editor-in-Chief of Gamers Nexus, Steve Burke, and his colleagues into GPU smuggling into China, which was recently featured on the ChinaTalk podcast with Jordan Schneider.Mike & Brent discuss the context for the report (00:51), its key takeaways (03:14), what it means and what it doesn’t mean for U.S. design companies and anyone subject to U.S. export laws (05:47), and why the “high probability” standard provides a path forward for companies facing reports such as this (12:30).They conclude with another installment of Brent Carlson’s ever-popular “Managing Up” (16:03).Steve Burke & Gamers Nexus’ report can currently be found here: https://rumble.com/v6xro9o--the-nvidia-ai-gpu-black-market-smuggling-corruption-and-global-scandal-.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=emailMore about Gamers Nexus: https://gamersnexus.net/Check out Jordan Schneider’s ChinaTalk episode on the report here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nvidia-gpu-black-market-smuggling/id1289062927?i=1000723081399More about Brent: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-carlson-41ba692/More about Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/Everything you ever wanted to know about the “high probability” standard: https://www.hugheshubbard.com/fresh-looks
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  • Grab the Carrots, Avoid the Sticks, and Get Ready for More Transparency
    Mike and Brent pick up the discussion from Episode 25 with some further thoughts on the proposed revenue-sharing arrangement between the U.S. government and certain exporters, including what should be anticipated from the U.S. government in terms of increased transparency (01:36), give their take on the Maintaining American Superiority by Improving Export Controls Transparency Act signed into law by the President, including both what it does do and what it doesn’t do (10:27), and provide their takes on the long-running media speculation about a so-called “50% rule” that would extend the Entity List maintained by the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) automatically to subsidiaries or affiliates owned 50% or more by a listed entity (18:53), including questions that the debate raises about what due diligence is being done now on subsidiaries and affiliates of listed entities, and important distinctions between U.S. economic sanctions—from where the 50% rule concept is being borrowed—and U.S. export controls that suggest the rule is better suited for the former than the latter.They conclude with another installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (26:25).More about Brent: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-carlson-41ba692/More about Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/Everything you ever wanted to know about the “high probability” standard: https://www.hugheshubbard.com/fresh-looks
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  • Deals, More Deals, and Protective Backstops
    Mike & Brent dive into the latest geopolitical developments surrounding technology exports and the interplay between leading tech companies and the U.S. Administration.Specifically, they discuss the latest news regarding U.S. conditions for licensing the export of Nvidia’s H20 chip to China (00:38), the impact of the deal on trade negotiations between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (and vice-versa) (04:59), the difficult position companies generally are in regarding export controls due diligence and the multiple potential meanings and consequences regarding public officials’ statements around export controls (16:01), the latest news regarding Intel’s CEO’s interactions with the U.S. Administration and how they illustrate vividly the “whipsaw” effect companies and executives face as geopolitical winds swirl (20:09), the relevance of the “pretend mistake” tactic in dealmaking—or, as Mike referred to it in the context of U.S. export controls, the “revoked forgiveness” tactic (22:40), and, practically speaking, how companies can best anchor themselves amidst the geopolitical storm by designing and implementing a “high probability protocol” to best anticipate core trends in U.S. export controls enforcement and serve as an important compliance backstop (25:36).They then conclude with another installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (26:59).More about Brent: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-carlson-41ba692/More about Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/Everything you ever wanted to know about the “high probability” standard: www.hugheshubbard.com/fresh-looks
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Om Red Flags Rising

Welcome to Red Flags Rising, where we examine how geopolitics and national security are reshaping corporate enforcement and compliance.In an era where “economic security” drives government intervention through increasingly strict and consequential export controls, economic sanctions, inbound and outbound investment restrictions, and tariffs, legacy mindsets and assessments of enforcement risk create liability pitfalls for the uninformed.Under the “high probability” standard driving this new enforcement playbook, spotting and effectively mitigating “red flags” has a new urgency.We will help you identify and understand the trends, key insights, and practical solutions that are essential to companies, boards of directors, c-suite management, and compliance professionals in these turbulent times.
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