Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Sun Tzu would be Proud of Ukraine. Russia is trying to turn this war into a contest of manpower, ammunition, industrial capacity, and endurance. I explain why Ukraine’s answer is to refuse Russia’s terms—using intelligence, technology, speed, and asymmetric warfare to produce disproportionate effects with limited resources.

I examine how AI-guided drones, Ukraine’s new RK-19 air-defense missile, and the emerging Patriot interceptor strategy reflect Sun Tzu’s central principles. I also look at Russia’s difficulty adapting, Germany’s military support, the AfD’s connections to Moscow, Lavrov’s threats, and why this war may continue into 2027.

CHAPTERS

0:00 Sun Tzu Looks Over Zelensky’s Shoulder

1:12 Ukraine Refuses to Fight Russia’s War

3:01 AI-Guided Strikes Increase Tenfold

3:24 Ukraine Unveils the RK-19 Missile

3:50 PAC-2 vs. PAC-3 Explained

5:20 Why the War May Continue Into 2027

7:51 How Deep Do the AfD’s Russia Ties Go?

11:19 Lavrov’s Threat and the “Buffer Zone” Claim

13:24 Putin, Trump, Xi—and the Patriot Stockpile Problem

15:11 Viewer Questions and the Sun Tzu Verdict

#Ukraine #Russia #SunTzu #UkraineWar #MilitaryStrategy

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine Russia’s fuel shortages, collapsing Black Sea oil and wheat exports, grain glut, farm-bankruptcy risk, sanctions pressure on Aeroflot, and rising military spending. Ukraine’s strikes and blocked logistics are exposing how Russia’s war economy depends on energy, transport, and export access.

00:00 Europe’s Energy Shortage and Russia’s Grain Surplus

01:41 War Costs and Russian Oil Export Decline

04:00 Fuel Shortages and Belarus Supply Limits

05:08 Aeroflot, Sanctions, and Transport Strain

06:36 Russia’s Grain Glut and Broken Export Logistics

08:27 Falling Corn and Wheat Exports

10:04 Broader Economic Stress Across Russia

12:10 Military Spending and Fuel Lines

#RussiaEconomy #UkraineWar #BlackSea #OilExports #GrainExports #FuelShortage

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine the reported Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Novorossiysk, where fires were reported at the naval base, military port facilities, and a fuel-oil terminal. Ukrainian officials said warships, including Kalibr missile carriers, were targeted, but the precise damage to vessels remains unconfirmed. That uncertainty matters: Novorossiysk has been a key Black Sea Fleet haven as Ukraine has repeatedly threatened Russian positions in Crimea.

I also assess reported strikes across Belgorod, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; the first declared UAV threat and airport closures in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, home to major oil and gas processing facilities; and Russia’s overnight attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro. On the battlefield, Ukraine reports Russian casualties surpassing 1.5 million killed and wounded, while a counteroffensive near Liman has reportedly restored roughly 200 square kilometers and pushed back a Russian salient. The strategic question is whether Russia can protect its fleet, energy infrastructure, and front lines simultaneously.

00:00 Russian casualty threshold and overnight strikes

05:02 Strikes in Belgorod, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk

07:45 Russian attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro

09:37 Russia’s reported 1.5 million casualties

13:21 Liman counteroffensive and Russian setbacks

16:26 Deterrence, air defense, and support for Ukraine

17:20 Remembering Borys and Project Constantine

#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Novorossiysk #BlackSeaFleet #RussianCasualties #NATO

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine Germany’s announcement that it will urgently transfer PAC-2 Patriot interceptors from national stocks and pursue contracts for roughly 1,000 Patriot missiles for Ukraine through an EU-backed loan. With winter approaching and Russian ballistic-missile and drone attacks intensifying, this is more than another aid pledge: it could directly affect Ukraine’s ability to protect cities, energy infrastructure, and civilian life. Germany is also increasing AIM-9 deliveries, while Ukraine seeks additional IRIS-T missiles and Britain, France, Italy, and other partners pursue further air-defense support.

I also look at the strategic political context behind this decision: the AfD’s electoral rise, migration and economic pressures inside Germany, Kyiv’s talks with Trump’s envoys, and Kremlin messaging around possible trilateral negotiations. The central question is whether Europe can sustain the industrial capacity and political resolve needed to deny Russia leverage through winter and beyond.

00:00 Germany’s 1,000 Patriot Interceptor Decision

03:42 European Air Defense Support Expands

10:31 Migration, Populism, and Europe’s Internal Pressures

13:03 Russia’s Wartime Strains and Kremlin Messaging

16:05 Trump-Putin Contacts and Competing Peace Claims

20:15 Patriot Priorities, Taurus, and Germany’s Choices

23:04 Nord Stream’s Strategic Legacy

#Ukraine #PatriotMissiles #Germany #AirDefense #NATO #RussiaUkraineWar

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine early reports that Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has cut a Russian salient north of Lyman after a four-month counterattack, reportedly liberating more than 200 square kilometers. If confirmed, this is more than a local map change: it could disrupt or delay Russia’s planned northern Donbas offensive. The timing is notable, as Ukraine says Moscow has moved its deadline to capture all of Donbas from December 31, 2026, to March 31, 2027.

I also cover the major exchange of long-range strikes overnight. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Rosneft Saratov refinery—said to process about 4.8 million tons annually—along with UAV launch infrastructure and command posts. Russia’s retaliatory attack on Kyiv and other cities involved drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles; the exact ballistic total remains unclear. I assess reported air-defense interceptions, damage to civilian sites including a Kyiv supermarket and TV studio, and Ukraine’s expanding use of unmanned ground vehicles for logistics and casualty evacuation.

00:00 Lyman Reports and Overnight Strike Exchange

04:10 Russia’s Missile and Drone Attack on Ukraine

06:44 Kyiv Civilian Damage and Air Defenses

09:02 Battlefield Indicators and Strike Totals

11:03 Ukraine Cuts the Russian Salient North of Lyman

13:26 Why the Lyman Operation Was Kept Quiet

15:41 Robotic Logistics and Ukraine’s Strategic Position

16:55 What the War Demands of Ukrainian Civilians

#UkraineWar #Lyman #Donbas #Kyiv #RussiaUkraineWar #SaratovRefinery

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR